Articles
International Media
Don’t miss my interview with Lucy Sarret in the Daily Express regarding the recent frost wave in Moscow and surrounding areas and how a burst pipe in a plant in Podolsk left thousands without electricity, heat, or water in subzero temperatures leading to unusual protests over lack of access to basic utilities.
My interview with Sky News Arabia سكاي نيوز عربية focuses on the so-called “third phase” of Israel’s war in Gaza and whether the move to low-grade conflict and withdrawal of troops is due to the pressure from the US, failure against Hamas, or other factors. I explain the need to relocate the troops towards other potential fronts and the strategic ambiguity of maintaining a low level conflict until elections, as well as also sending out mixed messages on whether the war is coming to a close or will continue for an extended period. Israel has achieved measurable successes in Northern Gaza but is now focusing on a higher intensity fight in the South where it in fact liquidated dozens of Hamas terrorists AFTER announcing the third phase. The article provides a detailed overview of the new strategy, as well as other perspectives on these latest developments.
Quoted in an in-depth Sky News Arabia سكاي نيوز عربية article alongside various regional experts including Scott Morgan and Gabriel Sawma about the likely impact of the US-British strikes on the Houthis, Iran, and regional security. Unfortunately, it appears that as I suspected the strikes were largely symbolic as the US warned the Houthis of the impending attack, which gave them time to transfer their arsenal to alternative locations. I argued that symbolic strikes will have a very limited deterrence value and that US and its allies need to show long-term consistency against Houthis, who are fully answerable to Iran no matter what, will likely continue attacks in projection of strength, and need to have their capabilities degraded and means of refilling stockpiles disrupted so they cannot put their radicalized ideology to practice. I also addressed the issue of Iran seeking to push the US out of the region, which underscores the need for a broader and consistent long-term strategy.
Quoted in Daily Express concerning the consequences and impact of the US-UK joint strike on Houthi targets in Yemen, recommending a long term disruptive strategy to cut Houthis off from communications and weapons delivery by Iran and to eliminate their human assets, who are much harder to replace than infrastructure.
Quoted in an excellent, in-depth article in Masr360 مصر 360 on the reasons behind US-British airstrikes on the Houthis, on Iran’s geopolitical interests and long-term objectives, on Houthi methods and agenda, and why these strikes despite all the noise and propaganda about them, are insufficient to have a long-term impact, and at most may merely delay the continuation of Houthi aggression in the region. I also address what action US and its ally need to take to actually force Iran and its proxies to back off.
US Media
Check out my deep dive interview with David Leichner at Authority Magazine about spotting disinformation, becoming a more skilled and smart news consumer, analyzing fakenews, and distinguishing between conspiracy theories and actual conspiracies.
While the United States is distracted by domestic and international engagements, concern mounts that Beijing may finally move to end Taiwan’s autonomy. I am quoted in Autumn Spredemann de Calani’s article in The Epoch Times along with Robert Evan Ellis on the impact of elections in Taiwan and in the United States this year onChina’s decision whether to take military action to "reunify" with Taiwan. The upcoming elections are crucial because China prefers to act through political and economic means and to avoid direct combat whenever possible. It is also waiting for an opportunity when the US is spread particularly thin due to the proliferation of international crises.
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus media and issues
Quoted extensively in an article by Azerbaijan’s Caliber discussing how Vivek Ramaswamy’s and the French "Patriots" party leader Florian Filippo’s electoral promises to withdraw US and France from NATO point to the growing isolationism among their constituencies, but also indicate a cynical disregard for the practical reality on the ground and the use of foreign-backed narratives to manipulate public opinion by these politicians, in light of the political failures by Biden and Macron to clearly delineated their countries’ national security interests in NATO-related concerns.
My comments to Trend News Agency on France’s latest political salvos into undermining Baku through human rights accusations on the international stage. I discuss why these efforts keep failing, what elements of information warfare Baku should be legitimately concerned about, and the best way to handle the mistrust related to the French training of the Armenian military in light of the efforts to preserve peace and security.
In my interview with Azerbaijan media, Yeni Sabah, I discuss the prospects for the finalized peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, why most of the onus has been on Baku so far and what needs to happen for that to change, and what to expect from Washington’s mediation in an election year amidst various global crises.
TV Video Appearances, Panels, and Podcasts
I joined the Brian J. Matos Podcast to discuss a variety of foreign policy, foreign affairs, and national and global security issues.
“Brian speaks with Irina Tsukerman, a human rights and national security lawyer, the Editor in Chief of The Washington Outsider and President of Scarab Rising, Inc., a strategic advisory firm. After graduating from Fordham University School of Law, Irina built a professional practice focused on relentlessly championing underreported international causes, especially through publications, media appearances, interviews, and organizing major international events. A prolific writer, her work appears regularly in US, European, Middle Eastern, and other international publications, including Newsweek, Modern Diplomacy, Arab News, Begin-Sadat Center, The Jerusalem Post, Small Wars Journal, and American Spectator. Interviews with Irina have appeared in the NY Post, Fox News, International Business Times and Al Arabiya among others. Irina has presented to the United Nations and UN Human Rights Commission, on congressional panels, at international conferences, and scholarly conferences.
In this conversation, Irina highlights the interconnectedness of global crises and the collaboration among state and non-state actors to weaken the United States and its partners. She also explores the challenges posed by information warfare and the potential misuse of artificial intelligence. Brian and Irina also discuss the geopolitical goals of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, as well as the divergent responses within Western countries.”
My appearance on Azerbaijan’s ITV to discuss the appointment of the new US ambassador to Baku and the potential for attracting various types of investment to Azerbaijan, particularly from the US. My remarks start at 21:18, and I discuss various opportunities such as smart cities, hi tech development, green energies, education, and more.
“US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Israel, again in his quest to prevent the Gaza conflict from growing into a regional conflagration, as the Israeli military said its fight against Hamas would continue all year. Antony Blinken warned Israel’s war in Gaza could ‘Metastasize.’” I joined WION (World Is One News) to discuss whether Israel’s assassination of a senior Hizbullah commander in Lebanon would lead to regional escalation. I emphasized that:
Iran is the sole party responsible for any escalation and expansion of the conflict
that Sec. Blinken’s trip to the MiddleEast to push for de-escalation is likely to be fruitless because none of the countries, such as Jordan, KSA, UAE, or Israel control what Hamas, Hizbullah, or Houthis do - only Iran does.
I gave the example of Saudi Arabia’s ongoing peace process with the Houthis which resulted in no breakthroughs and that Houthis continue to attack Saudi guards on the borders with lethal outcomes.
I address the numbers of casualties in Gaza provided by Hamas and explained how Hamas has every reason to inflate those numbers.
I addressed how Israel’s assassination of Hizbullah commanders is an act of deterrence, not escalation.
I underscored that although the US has to deal with different internal and external audiences, not just Israel and its supporters, pressuring Israel to wind up the war in Gaza will not bring the desired result. I talked about why Israel’s war with a terrorist organization is not conventional and cannot be resolved in 3 months and that it’s too early to tell whether or not it’s a success; that Israel was clear about its military objectives (destruction of the military leadership, demilitarization, and de-escaltion), and that the war could take up at least a year in Gaza alone, and that it’s in the US interests to let Israel do its job because Hamas has become a global, not just regional threat.
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV to discuss MBZ’s visit to Baku, the growing relationship between Azerbaijan and UAE, the impact of COP28, the series of new MOUs signed by the two countries, and various areas for potential growth in cooperation including energy (oil and gas), green energy, environmental impact, hi tech, and smart cities.
“The International Court of Justice hears the case filed by South Africa, accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. In its 84-page filling S. Africa said that by killing Palestinians in Gaza, and causing them mental and physical harm, Israel was committing genocide against them. Israeli President Herzog has called the case ‘atrocious and preposterous’ and said that Israel will proudly present its case of using self-defence as an inherent right under International law. Meanwhile, PM Netanyahu has publicly rebuffed calls by some right-wingers to permanently occupy the Gazan enclave.” I appeared on NEWS9 “Global Lens” to discuss ICJ hearings on genocide claims filed by South Africa against Israel in an effort to secure a non-binding emergency measure that would in theory put an end to Israel’s war in Gaza for humanitarian reasons. While the panel of experts debated the legal merits of these claims, I added some political context to the situation:
As someone who studied under South African Justice Goldstone, the author of the infamous report and certainly no friend of Israel, the legal claims had no merit or substance to justify even the ruling for short-term emergency measures.
South Africa pulled an obvious political stunt while suffering from proliferating internal domestic problems, including corruption, crime, the deterioration of the ANC party, and strife. It also failed to attract support from fellow BRICS members, even Russia and China, which have been supportive of Hamas as a political movement and critical of Israel’s tactics in Gaza.
The impact of SA’s clams was likely to be limited to those who were already inclined to view Israel negative, which means galvanizing pro-Hamas mobs involved in protests mostly in the West, and giving fodder to pro-Hamas Western academia.
Protests favoring Gaza have died down in the Arab world, as the local governments came to understand the threat of giving too long a leash to the supporters of a terrorist organization, who could eventually turn against them.
US government, former senior British officials, and various experts all saw through the ruse of this move and declared the SA moves meritless.
Although the US is facing pressure over Gaza from domestic circles, much of its strategy was actually geared towards preventing escalation with Iran and curtailing its co-optation of the Palestinian cause.
The upcoming elections2024 in the US could be beneficial to Israel, because if all the Hamas supporters stay home, a Republican could take the White House, and would likely be much more tough on Iran and its proxies, for both political and historic reasons.
I was interviewed by the ARB24 TV station in Azerbaijan about Blinken’s shuttle diplomacy trip to the Middle East and East Med to discuss measures to deescalate regional conflicts, including Israel’s war in Gaza. I explained that most of the countries have no direct control over Iran-backed terrorist organizations and Israel is fighting a legitimate war of self-defense. The only parties that should be pressured to deescalate are Iran and Hamas funders like Qatar. I also explained why the US has little leverage on Turkey in this situation and how the current scenario benefits Erdogan’s efforts to build an image of the leader of the Muslim world.
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV to discuss the US-British strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, providing a background to Iran-driven Houthi aggression, the challenges to the freedom of navigation, and the media line pushed by pro-Iran circles that a response to growing aggression would lead to escalation. I also discussed US interest in degrading Houthi capabilities, the concerns of various regional players and their role vis-a-vis the Houthis (i.e. the different positions taken by KSA, UAE, and Bahrain), why linking the Houthi attacks on international commerce to the Israel-Hamas conflict is not accurate, what is likely to happen next, and what other entities or countries are likely to back Iran and Houthis in the near future. I also discussed the impact of the Houthi disruption on the economy, particularly of the Far East countries, and how Iran’s regional aggression is bringing together with the West even formerly neutral countries like Japan and India.
“US and UK strikes against the Houthi movement in Yemen, a response to their attacks on international shipping. The strikes, involving aircraft, ships, and submarines, marked a significant escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict. With 27 Houthi attacks disrupting global shipping, witness the implications of these military actions and their potential impact on the broader Middle East. In parallel, Israel faces a crucial moment at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), responding to South Africa’s accusations of a state-led genocide campaign in Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu condemns the case as ‘hypocrisy and lies.’” I appeared on News9Live “Global Lens” on a panel of experts to discuss the impact of the US-UK airstrikes on Houthi targets and whether it will lead to a regional escalation. I made the following points:
Houthis are acting at the behest of Iran; Iran is an independent actor, not merely reactive to US foreign policy or to Israel’s war with Hamas as some claim.
Iran and Houthis have engaged in regional aggression before October 7; including attacks on Bahrain base, most recently, border skirmishes with the Saudis, and previous drone and missile attacks on KSA and UAE.
These airstrikes not only have deterrence goals against Houthis, but also against Iran; they also have the goal of degrading Houthi capabilities to make it more difficult for them to engage in any further kinetic action
Iran is looking to establish a credible naval presence in the region and to use regional aggression to push US out and to humiliate Western countries by showing them to be weak and inconsistent.
Long-term strategy beyond occasional airstrikes is needed to disrupt supplies of weapons and to put an end to Iran’s advance through the region.
“Irina Tsukerman, an expert in international affairs, revealed the goals of America and Britain behind carrying out a military attack against Houthi sites.” I joined القاهرة الإخبارية AlQahera News to discuss in detail the reason and consequences for the US-British airstrikes against Houthi targets. My points included:
although the official reason was the restoration of freedom navigation, US and UK were also sending a stratcom message to Iran and looking to degrade Houthi capabilities
The Arab world’s efforts to tie the Houthi issue to Israel’s war in Hamas is erroneous. Iran and Houthis had long-term regional goals before October 7; Houthis and Iran both have a record of attacking Arab states independent of Israel’s role.
Neither US nor UK have the power to stop Israel from a legitimate defensive war against Hamas - not Gaza or Palestinians - and although they have asked Israel to change strategy, deescalate, and focus on targeted hits on the leadership, both understand that Hamas is a global threat, and also a threat to the Arab world.
I explained that Hamas has expanded beyond its regional anti-Israel reach and history and is now threatening attacks and other countries; its training and ideology comparable to ISIS make it a potent threat towards disruption and annihilation even inside Arab states.
I talked about the various evidence of Iran’s backing of Hamas and Houthis, including the 500 Hamas and PIJ fighters trained in Iran before OCtober 7, Iran leadership comments, the type of training and weapons they received, and Iran’s ability to bring rival Palestinian terrorist factions together for the October 7 attack. I also discussed Houthi training in the elite military academies and Iran and the various forms of support they have received.
I discussed the need for a long-term strategy in the region and Iran’s efforts to become the dominant power and to establish a naval presence which threatens many countries.
I shot down the idea that Houthis only targeted Israel-linked or Israel bound ships, addressing how Russian and Chinese ships, even the ones bound for Israel were unharmed, and the continuing attacks on foreign commercial vessels even when Israel diverted most of its ships towards Cape Verde.
I underscored that the Houthis and Iran are trying to rile up the international community and pressure against Israel over the war in Hamas and using indirect methods of that sort, but that this method is transparent and not working.
I talked about Russia’s motion to convene the Security Council and how the UN recently called on Houthis to stop the attacks. I brought up the need for a more integrated international cooperation against the attacks, which would include political isolation, target and consistently enforced sanctions against individual members of Houthis and Iran leadership, and increased security cooperation.
I addressed the criticism of the maritime security coalition US has put together and said that it will take time to ramp up effectiveness, but eventually other member states will need to contribute in meaningful ways beyond political statements and moral support because US and UK cannot undertake a long-term commitment alone. I also discussed a potential for greater cooperation with EU forces given the recent EU interest in securing its own interests, and gave a positive example of the participation by some EU member states in coordinated operations to disrupt the flow of Iran’s contraband into Yemen.
I also discussed how Iran and Houthis are independently escalating regardless of what US and UK do or fail to do, and therefore it is better to make it more difficult for them to inflict damage, and mentioned their attacks on Arab states and how the Houthis continue to attack Saudi soldiers even during negotiations in Riyadh.
The Washington Outsider Report on the Coalition Radio
- Ep. 124
Don’t miss my discussion with Ilya Shapiro on all things academia: antisemitism on campus, DEI, the bureaucratic mission creep, plagiarism and other concerns related to academic integrity, financial conflicts of interests, foreign funding and foreign students, and of course, free speech. We all know that the performance of the three elite university presidents (two of whom are now gone) at the Congressional hearing in response to the genocide defense question was a huge mistake - but what should they have said instead? And of course we explore the legal boundaries separating speech from non-speech, and free speech from harassment. A lot of it may seem like common sense, but the social media cognoscenti often make rookie mistakes in conflating concepts of what is actually constitutionally protected and what is wishful thinking! The overarching theme of this conversation is why the problems on campus are much bigger than Claudine Gay or any other individual administration - and what should and can be done about it. We also talk about some interesting and disruptive alternatives to the mere focus on investigations of academic wrongdoing and overreach. A fun and informative conversation for anyone either following these issues closely or on the other hand, looking to catch up and make sense of the endless stream of articles and controversy.