Articles
International Media
Quoted in Sky News Arabia سكاي نيوز عربية on the subject of Secretary Blinken’s upcoming sixth wartime visit to Israel, with the likely focus on pushing a long-term ceasefire, finding a path to end the war in Gaza, and discussing the implementation of a two-state solution. I explain Biden’s political dilemmas regarding the Israel-Hamas war in an election year amidst various domestic and global crises and priorities, including the war in Ukraine and the spreading of the conflict to the Red Sea, as well as the impasse in Congress over aid packages. I explain that although Israel has shown flexibility on tactical issues, it has to prioritize its national security despite US pressure, or Hamas will make a triumphant comeback.
I was interviewed about the Spaghetti Monster! Just kidding. Took part in a VERY interesting discussion among various experts on Sky News Arabia سكاي نيوز عربية about the proliferation of assorted global crises and international conflicts, which are increasingly interconnected and involve deep ties among various actors and stakeholders, resembling a plate of “spaghetti”, to use a description coined by The Economist. We talked about the way these situations are playing out and whether or not the current set of circumstances is similar to what the world was facing right before World War I and World War II broke out, and whether these conditions, if unchecked, could lead to a third world war. I differed slightly from the other commentators in addressing the sprawling and gradual nature of the asymmetrical conflicts and the need to address the coalitions of threat state and non-state actors as a common front rather than disparate entities with occasional points of cooperation.
Quoted in Al-Etihad News along with Hadeel Oueis about the US presidential elections, and the chances for each leading candidates. I explained that there is a possibility of Biden being substituted with a younger candidate due to age related concerns, or that Trump could be swapped out for another Republican nominee in the event he is convicted of criminal charges during his various trials. Although Trump and Biden are the most likely pair to face off in the general election, the baggage each carries could lead to some surprises.
US Media
Quoted in Ines Ferre’s article in Yahoo Finance on the latest trend towards embracing nuclear energy after COP28 commitments, why uranium maybe in short supply in the near future, and why, while the value of nuclear energy is clear, I am cautious about what may also be a political bubble easily burst by a new fad or a government changing track.
Quoted along with other critics of UNWRA, including John Hagee, in Jackson Richman’s latest article in The Epoch Times, which describes the US decision to suspend funding to the Palestinian refugee agency pending investigation of an Israel report linking a number of staffers to Hamas. As we argue, the failings of UNWRA go far beyond these outrageous instances, and are linked to the very design and mission of this agency.
TV Video Appearances and Podcasts
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s “Modern Talking” with Rasim Babayev to discuss the Texas stand-off between the state and federal authorities over border security in light of the SCOTUS decision, the US elections, and what the latest polls mean for Trump and Biden, the chill in relations between Baku and Washington over a series of faux pas by State Department officials and Congress, and why Baku needs to forge strong independent relations in USG, Azerbaijan’s withdrawal from PACE, and why Russia and Iran are using proxies and allies in international organizations to divide Western interests and to alienate Baku from Europe, why Iran’s attack on Pakistan is not what it appears to be, Iran’s general posture in the Red Sea, and what the proxy attacks on international commerce and US interests mean for US foreign policy in the Middle East, and the alleged diplomatic tensions between Egypt and Israel, despite Egypt’s growing mediation role - will Israel lose the PR war in the Middle East, and does it matter if it does?
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV to discuss the Texas stand-off between state and federal authorities over border security, the presidential elections 2024, Biden’s low polling, Trump’s various legal troubles and political cases, and who stands the best chance with the independents by November. Is a sudden substitution of candidates possible?
Joined a very interesting discussion on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV to discuss Texas stand-off between the state and federal authorities, and the legal and political controversies surrounding border security and immigration, CIA Director William Burns’ article in Foreign Affairs on geopolitical shifts and innovation breakthroughs challenging US intelligence, and whether US leadership and success are more under threat from external or internal factors.
“In this episode of The KAJ Masterclass LIVE, join host Khudania Ajay as he engages in a riveting conversation with Irina Tsukerman, human rights and national security lawyer, geopolitical analyst, and editor of The Washington Outsider. Delve into the outcomes of Davos 2024, the escalating Houthi attacks, and the geopolitical challenges faced by the US and Iran. Irina provides unique insights into global politics, offering a perspective crucial for navigating our ever-changing world.” I joined Khudania Ajay on The KAJ Masterclass LIVE to discuss:
Whether the elites can solve all the problems at Davos
What to make of India’s growing role in the Red Sea security
How to interpret Pakistan’s accusations against India over the alleged assassination of two of its citizens in light of upcoming elections in both countries
Whether Iran’s airstrikes in Pakistan were part of a very successful political theater
What to expect from the US in terms of reaction to the Iran proxy killing of three US troops in Jordan
The impact of Houthi aggression on the region
US elections and border security controversy - the signals from the polarized political sphere in the US to the rest of the world
Will Blinken’s pledges in Africa position US more advantageously vis-a-vis Wagner?
Should we be taking North Korea’s threats seriously - and what can North Korea contribute as part of a growing international alliance?
Will latest reports of corruption exposure in Ukraine and rumors about Zaluzhny’s upcoming displacement further erode US and international support?
... and more!
I appeared on القاهرة الإخبارية AlQahera News to discuss the ongoing US airstrikes in Syria and planned airstrikes in Iraq. Some of the points I made:
The airstrikes are likely to have several phases, as detailed by Pentagon. We are likely to see multiple waves of attacks on specified targets in the next days, if not weeks to come.
The impact of the airstrikes will depend on the strategic value of these targets to Iran. To have the greatest impact, US should be either hitting important targets inside Iran itself or liquidating important leaders like Ghani if they are traveling abroad. While we will have to wait to see the full impact of ongoing strikes, US undermined its position by announcing the strikes in advance which allowed Iran to pull its assets out of Iraq and Syria (not that it cares about the expendable local militias and proxies), and by targeting assets that are not essential to Iran to begin with. The US should not be allowing Iran to hide behind its proxies.
The US seems to be going out of the way to signal its concern about avoiding a direct confrontation with Iran, which only plays into Iran’s local agenda. For instance, it has repeatedly announced that it doesn’t want a war with Iran and it has mischaracterized Iran’s relationship with its proxies, making unsubstantiated and downright false claims that Iran is not in full control of them, thereby allowing Tehran to save face. By playing defense, the US is paving the way for future attacks by Iran, which has been unilaterally escalating the whole time. Instead, the US should have shown its own control over the situation by engaging in “controlled escalation” and forcing Iran to full back. In the past, during the Trump administration when Iran escalated sufficiently, assassination of Qassem Soleimani and other forceful responses by the US forced Iran to retreat until it saw an opportunity to escalate under Biden.
The US has allowed Iran to take initiative; its entire posture in the Middle East has been responsive, and passive, rather than affirmative. The US has failed to develop a coherent assertive strategy to roll back Iran’s influence in the region, instead only providing limited responses to escalating and widening aggression which only greenlit Iran’s plan to diminish US image and to make Washington look weak and pliable.
Iran’s claims that the proxies are merely responding to the US defense of Israel vis-a-vis Gaza is a thinly veiled excuse to push the US out of the region altogether. Iran has attacked the US through its proxies and directly before the October 7 attack; moreover, Iran has made the whole situation possible to begin with by arming Muslim Brotherhood organizations and its own proxies and bringing them together for the operation Al Aqsa Flood. The US is well within its rights to do what is necessary to defend its own interests, its allies, and regional and global peace and security against terrorism and extremism. Iran’s claims to defend the interests of Gaza civilians bear no scrutiny as it has provided no humanitarian assistance; it only armed the very terrorist organizations that hold same civilians hostage and divert international humanitarian aid.
Finally, the timing of these attacks is certainly not spontaneous. Iran and its proxies obviously benefit from the proliferation of regional crises; they opportunistically push additional conflicts to weaken and dilute US response and to force US into distracting confrontations on multiple fronts. However, Iran and others have also been watching the overall weakness in foreign policy and taking note of the failed response in Afghanistan, the weakness over Russia aggression against Ukraine, and assorted other failures that have advanced the interests of adversaries, hegemons, terrorist organizations, and state sponsors of terrorism. Moreover, Iran and its proxies are capitalizing on the political opportunity presented by the election year and by the vocal influence and visibility of their supporters abroad pushing the US into a desperate defense of its policies and political capitulation. Meanwhile, the US has failed to articulate a coherent response to Iran’s aggression and to make a cogent appeal to its domestic constituency and the world, addressing the need to prioritize the rolling back of Iran’s aggression and its stand in the region, nor has it clearly communicated and outlined its interests and priorities in the Middle East. US has essentially abdicated its duty in strategic communication of its interests, giving Iran a lead both in information warfare and the first mover’s advantage/initiative in terms of regional policy, with infinite room and no pushback to advance its objectives.
I joined MitKat Advisory’s APAC Risk Symposium 2024 (MARS 2024) to discuss top geopolitical threats this year. This was a very diverse group of professionals from all over the world with fascinating and distinct insights on everything ranging from terrorism threats in Africa, to economic warfare and the limitation of sanctions, to cybersecurity and AI developments, to upcoming elections in the UK. The questions were in depth and stimulating, and great moderator skills helped advance a succinct, provocative, and enriching discussion. Many takeaways to learn from and themes to explore!
The Washington Outsider Report on the Coalition Radio
- Ep. 127
Don’t miss a really crucial discussion with Salvatore Mercogliano, Ph.D. about the impact of the Iran vessel hijackings and Houthi attacks on the shipping industry.
Learn about the relationship between the shipping industry and the insurance company
Find out how the insurance companies figure out the ”war zone” insurance designation
Hear about what happens to hijacked vessels once they are taken into custody
Get to know some of the big players in the Western insurance “cooperatives” and how they are being challenged by dark fleets and new insurance companies popping up in the non-Western states. Will BRICS woo away the insurance and shipping business from the West?
We also discuss about the financial impact of the attacks on the region, such as the Suez Canal in Egypt
Why the US strategy focusing exclusively on the military options and ignoring soft power implication is flawed
What happens when Iran reaches outside the Red Sea to draw in new players such as India and Pakistan
The pros and cons of Russia’s proposed alternative - the Arctic Route
How Russia, China, and others benefit from the directed attacks on the US
What are the options facing the US and its allies in trying to resolve the situation - will we see the entire shipping sector upended and reconfigured as a result of these trends?