Articles
International Media
I gave comments, among a number of researchers, to Sky News Arabia سكاي نيوز عربية, about Iran’s “strategic patience” with US and Israel, and whether the most recent strikes in Syria and the liquidation of several IRGC officers are bringing Iran and Israel closer to a direct confrontation. I explained that the two countries have been engaged in a shadow war for several years now, with Iran trying to assassinate Israelis around the world, while Israel has struck Iranian targets in Syria many times. I also explained Netanyahu’s reference to Israel’s willingness and ability to assassinate Iranian officials and nuclear scientists on Iranian soil, and why Iran does not want to confront Israel directly but rather through proxies, diplomatic isolation, and information warfare.
I commented for Gas Strategies about the latest in Biden’s gas-related policies - the expected and announced new regulations for the industry, the announced review of the gas terminals, and the shocking pause in the new LNG export licenses and the likely cumulative impact of all these sudden policy shifts on the industry and on the US economy and geopolitical role. “‘More immediately, there's [an] expectation of pushback and a call for written clarification to make these things as clear and detailed and committed as possible’ Irina Tsukerman told Gas Matters Today. ‘What nobody wants is additional surprises along the way.’”
US Media
In my latest comments for the Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies, I discuss the timing of Iran’s attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria, whether Russia is pushing Iran into an escalation in the Middle East; and, to what extent the new Cold War, now more inclusive of both state and non-state actors fighting against the West, is challenging the US standing as well as whether it is winnable? I address how the problems in confronting this new axis are structural and strategic; it’s not just a matter of specific policies or additional resources on any one particular issue.
Sadly, as true now as when it was first published, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs President Dan Diker and I did a podcast discussing why Saudi-Israel normalization was all hype with no substance and here we are months later….
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Media and Issues
Quoted in the Trend News Agency on the prospects and priorities for Azerbaijan’s upcoming presidential election, in light of the full liberation of all of its territories and looming regional integration.
I commented about the US-based Armenian lobby group ANCA’s ethnocentric attack on Israel’s Ambassador to Azerbaijan George Deek over placing flowers in the Alley of the Martyrs in Baku and why Israeli officials are being consistently singled out and attacked by ANCA. I explained that it’s easier to pick on Israel rather than a bigger country such as the US, which is also seen as a source of financial and political support for Armenian interests, but that there is also an obsessive ethnocentrism at the core of ANCA’s operations, and that these identity-based attacks will eventually backfire and cost public support, once this method is exposed to the international community.
In the context of Azerbaijan’s decision to withdraw from PACE (Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe), I joined another analyst to discuss whether the restriction on the voting of the Azerbaijan delegation by Germany, which blocked Baku’s credentials, would have any impact on Azerbaijan’s interest. I addressed the fact that the situation was ironic due to Germany’s delegation also being challenged on political grounds, and that this situation actually had presented Azerbaijan with a good opportunity to present and resolve outstanding issues, propose a new framework for collaboration, make new allies, and propose a balance of transparency and good faith in addressing past, present, and future disputes, as well as to push for objective and consistent rules.
TV Video Appearances, Panels, and Podcasts
“The CIA has launched a new campaign with a video aimed at recruiting Russians to spy for the US. CNN’s Alex Marquardt reports.” I joined WION (World Is One News) to discuss the CIA’s public outreach effort to get Russian Intelligence officers to switch sides via sharing the story of a disillusioned colleague who blames Russia’s failed policy on corruption and oligarch greed. I explain the context of this ploy, and why an intelligence agency would resort to social media pitches and sharing public contact information in the context of espionage, which presumes secrecy. I explained that this technique is more of an information warfare/psyops move to stir the pot, to encourage disgruntled employees to reach out, and to help start a witch hunt for potential traitors in the paranoid and increasingly insecure Kremlin circles.
“The US seems set to witness a Trump vs Biden re-match in the 2024 elections. This after Trump cruised to victory in the New Hampshire primary against the sole remaining candidate Nikki Haley. Despite the loss Haley pledged to continue the fight, saying that the ‘race is far from over’. These primary results are likely to bolster calls for Haley to drop out of the race and unite the party.” I joined News9Live ”Global Lens” panel with Indian experts to discuss why Haley is continuing in her seemingly quixotic pursuit of a possible nomination and what lies in the cards in the event of a Trump vs. Biden rematch. In my comments, I explained that...
Ron DeSantis dropping out and endorsing Trump right before New Hampshire hurt Haley by channeling his votes to DJT.
Trump has succeeded in painting Haley as part of the Swamp and a darling of the Democrats among not only most of his own supporters but those who have been critical of him so far.
Haley has correctly pointed out Trump’s failings in the past elections, and his vulnerabilities in the general elections, but has not managed to overcome the deficit of her own support, and has not created an effective counter-narrative about how she would succeed where Trump failed. She also has not succeeded in challenging his presidential record or turning her own strengths and policies into anything visible to the public.
Trump’s supporters still see him as the incumbent, but he has failed to expand his base; in fact, it shrank, and the turnout has already been very low. He is not reaching the independents and is turning a lot of people off with his comments on various issues, including foreign policy, especially most recently, Taiwan.
Biden has the advantage of being the incumbent and the resources that come with it, even despite the low approval ratings and loss of support over Israel. This is likely to be a very close election, and could go either way.
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV to discuss Azerbaijan’s withdrawal from PACE (Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe) in light of the German delegation’s block on the credentials of the Baku counterparts, which limited Azerbaijan’s ability to vote. I explained that…
while huge international organizations are prone to corruption, infiltration, and manipulation by narrow agendas, in this case the problem was an initiative of one country.
while France is generally leaning pro-Armenian in international organizations due to a huge diaspora and for historical reasons, in this case Germany was the problematic actor.
Armenia is too small of an influence to have single-handedly forced Germany to adopt this position.
t is ok for countries to pursue their individual agendas - after all the very purpose of this organization is to facilitate dialogue and help advance interests in a collaborative manner, but not when there are bad faith and ulterior motives, as they seem to be in the context.
German team ignored the UN report absolving Azerbaijan of moral, legal, or political accusations of ethnic cleansing of the Armenian community over many people leaving after the counterterrorism operation against the separatists in Karabakh
the only two major powers with motives to attack Azerbaijan are Iran (due to economic and geopolitical rivalry and ethnic tensions leading to enmity) and Russia, which is concerned about dividing pro-Western organizations in general and bring Baku back to its fold.
this is a good opportunity for behind-the-scenes dialogue to resolve misunderstandings, reframe the discussion, and re-evaluate the regulatory framework of PACE to include more clear and objective standards for advancing interests and resolving concerns.
Leaving PACE will preclude Azerbaijan from having a seat at the table and opportunity to influence the course of events, but a pause may allow it to engage differently.
Azerbaijan should be forming its own lobbies and initiating actions in support of its own interests within PACE and other international organizations.
In the event Baku finalizes its decision, PACE will be unlikely to review its problematic issues on its own; Baku should still identify potential allies who could push on behalf of its and common interests and concerns internally, including paving a path for a more constructive comeback in the future.
“Two themes are being discussed in Washington’s eyes this week; First, Iran and Turkey continue to attack and bombard the Kurds in the Middle East. Second, another Republican primary was held in New Hampshire, where Donald Trump defeated his Republican rival by a large margin. Part 1 Washington’s Eye: Violations by the Islamic Republic of Iran and Turkey. Irina Tsukerman, National Security Expert” talks about why…
no one seems to protect the Kurds; Because Erdogan can do anything with complete protection.
Iran’s message in its attacks is to show strength, but none of these attacks fall into that category.
the Iraqi central government is weak and forced to send mixed messages.
any attack on US allies and partners should be seen as an attack on US interests. Q: I haven’t seen a policy to protect the Kurds for a long time, despite the continued US treaties.
the best policy for the Kurds is to fight the oppressive regimes and they should establish relations with other countries in unity. Former US President Donald Trump has won his second victory in the New Hampshire primary, increasing his chances of becoming the Republican nominee against Joe Biden in November. Will these Trump victories force Democrats to review their campaigns? Is Trump’s rival Nikki Haley likely to withdraw? Salih Demijer answers these and other questions about the US presidential election.”
I appeared on VOA Kurdish with Balen Salih to discuss Iran’s and Turkey’s aggression in the region. Regarding Iran’s airstrikes into Iraq and Pakistan, and the message Tehran was trying to signal, I said that…
Iran needed to project power after the embarrassing Intelligence failure that allowed ISISK to kill over 90 people on its own soil
there are various question as to why Iran did not go after ISISK in Afghanistan nor why it did not engage with the Taliban over this matter
it was obvious the airstrikes in Erbil had nothing to do with ISIS and were nowhere near where ISIS fighters would be positioned
in fact Kurds and Americans had been leading the fight against ISIS in conjunction with Baghdad on occasion
there was also no evidence of Mossad activity. Rather, the strikes were close to the US consulate and the Erbil airport and also killed a major Kurdish oil magnate and members of his family all civilians
regarding Pakistan, the operation was likely choreographed in conjunction with Pakistan government, given the close relationship between Iran and Pakistan and their history and record of security and cooperation against the Baluchis and that everything about the tit-for-tit attacks which actually met mutual interests appeared orchestrated
the diplomatic fallout was also brief-lived and there would be no political escalation beyond these mutually beneficial gestures
Pakistan’s reaction and rush to restore relations was quite different from Iraq where Iran long since tried to exercise control and had a mixed record of tense relations, and that unlike Pakistan, Iraq immediately filed a complaint with the UN
many Iraqis, even Shia, were distrustful and resentful of Iran and its meddling in Iraqi affairs, and there was a long history of disagreement over the PMUs, and that these Iran-backed Shia militias also have a history of harassing and attacking Kurds
even as Iran is taking over more of the Middle East via its proxies, its desperate reaction (which also included symbolic strikes in its ally Syria), came from a position of weakness rather than strength and that Iran hides behind its various proxies, allies, and militias because it is afraid of confronting stronger powers and is significantly weaker than US, UK, etc.
Regarding Turkey’s efforts to procure F16, I explained that Erdogan positioned himself as a necessary power using his position in NATO to extract concessions from the US it could then use to attack Kurds and other neighbors, all because they desperately needed Turkey’s approval for Sweden to join NATO in light of the Russia’s war against Ukraine. I also discussed how the world is turning a blind eye to Turkey’s violation of Iraq’s and Syria’s sovereignty to attack the alleged PKK positions but in reality labeled anyone opposed to Erdogan as PKK and also frequently attacked and killed civilians.
the US has repeatedly betrayed Kurds and was not likely to come to their defense in light of Turkey’s escalating attacks in Syria, especially in light of its possible withdrawal from Iraq and Syria that would likely lead to general destabilization However, other powers, such as Russia had an equally flawed record and had also sold out the Kurds to Erdogan
regarding what the Kurds needed to do to protect their interests and defend themselves, I explained: despite the difficult history of being split across 4 countries and ensuing political disunity, the Kurds needed to rally for mutual self-defense and also find new regional allies, despite obvious challenges, to fight against growing authoritarianism and the threat of political Islam and related extremism, which threatens them all.
The Washington Outsider Report on the Coalition Radio
-Ep. 126
Don’t miss a fiery discussion with Stephen Bryen, who is currently a Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy and has an extensive experience both in USG export-import control and in private practice on defense issues. We discuss the latest innovations in advanced tracking technology available to Houthis and facilitating their targeting of commercial vessels in the Red Sea and beyond, the details of Iran’s practical assistance, why the various US-UK airstrikes have not put an end to the Houthi attacks, why this latest escalation is merely using Israel-Gaza war as an excuse, why Tehran feels safe enough to expand its reach into Indian Ocean and other areas, why many of the European allies, including in particular Italy’s Meloni, and Spain, have been such a disappointment on the defense side, who should be managing the crisis in the USG and why the policy on the exports of technology to Iran and Houthis has been so weak, how the Houthis are able to get services from US satellite companies, and what the US could and should be doing instead to securitize critical areas.
The Washington Outsider
A Washington Outsider panel discussion on the evolving political role of Latin American gangs. Join Walter Massimiliani, the author of the recent groundbreaking volume Pandillas, focused on the Latin American gangs in Italy and their links to their international counterparts, and Giovanni Giacalone, who has written about the evolution of Latin American gangs into narco-terrorist cartels in light of the ongoing fight against cartels and gangs in Ecuador. Find out…
why tattoos have a special significance for these groups
the history and diverse nature of Latin American gang presence in Italy
is there a relationship between these gangs and the local organized crime/mafia groups?
what are the political conditions and government policies that have made the influx of these gangs possible and that welcomes the formation of new gangs on Italy’s soil?
what are some of the ingenuous methods that the Latin American gang counterparts on both sides of the Atlantic use to advance their agenda, such as drug trafficking?
what is behind the rise of these gangs all over Latin America and their connections to bigger regional players?
who are the state and non-state actors benefiting from the chaos?
is the war between gangs/cartels and the government in Ecuador, El Salvador and other countries the work of some mysterious (or not so mysterious) powers?
can any Latin American leaders govern successfully without ever even trying to deal with the gangs?
what are the most effective methods of addressing gang proliferation and violence? Will we see a success story? Is Latin America too unstable for long-term victories over gang presence and violence?
An important piece by Giovanni Giacalone discusses why the artificial limitations imposed on Israel by Biden in its war against Hamas are ineffective and only help terrorism.