Articles
International Media
I have an explosive article up on the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs that explores Iran’s penetration of the West Bank and efforts to forge ties with the PA/Fatah: what that means for the regional security infrastructure and the future of the governance of the Palestinian-controlled territories, both in Gaza and in Judea/Samaria.
I am delighted to be mentioned in Emmanuel Razavi’s article and to have done this important interview regarding the growing cooperation between Russia, Iran, and the Muslim Brotherhood. We discuss issues like Russia’s cooperation with Chechen Islamists and Hamas, why Islamism is growing in Russia despite the Muslim Brotherhood ban, and how these former frienenemies are sharing assets, resources, and, despite divergent geopolitical objectives, a common dedication to destroying the West by all means - military, active measures, various forms of information warfare, and terrorism.
The article and the interview were published in the important French counter-extremism publication Ecran de Veille.
US Media
Quoted extensively in POWER magazine on China’s growing role in coal-produced power generation and what that means for the global market for coal, global climate initiatives, China’s climate initiatives, and how it impacts China’s targets for renewable energy development.
TV Video Appearances and Podcasts
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s ARB Media TV to discuss Nikol Pashinyan’s proposal of a non-aggression pact with Azerbaijan and the mixed messaging behind it. My appearance timestamp: 00-8:48. Translation of my comments:
“The most charitable interpretation of Pashinyan’s comments is that he is using the non-aggression pact as a trust-building measure en route to the final peace agreement as a sign of commitment to previously recognized territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and to border security. The best case scenario is that obtaining the same type of commitment from Azerbaijan would allay the fears of the Armenian constituents who are being constantly told of an imminent invasion by Baku. In other words, it’s a face-saving measure for Pashinyan himself which he can use to extricate himself with relative grace from the ratcheted up rhetoric over potential attacks while looking like a leader who can take peacebuilding initiatives. On the other hand, he can also weaponize any such commitment against Baku and its defense interests, even if they are not related to Armenia directly. Regardless, however, it is clear that this development is not yet in itself a sign of readiness for the full peace treaty, as it only addresses one aspect of the remaining questions regarding the opening of communications and remaining border issues. One thing is clear - posturing about Baku’s alleged potential aggression, even in a veiled form, benefits Pashinyan both at home and globally. This is a good opportunity for Baku to press him to provide any evidence of his claims regarding Azerbaijan’s alleged plans for invasion.”
Here is my interview with القاهرة الإخبارية AlQahera News about how the Biden administration’s policies restored Iran’s regional capabilities that were on the decline. Some of the points that I raised are as follows:
Russia’s call for a Security Council meeting over US airstrikes in Syria and Iraq indicates that Russia is indeed playing an interventionist role in the Middle East, and fully siding with Iran and its proxies, even as Jordan has supported the US right to self-defense against a deadly Iran-backed attack on its base in Jordan. But it’s not only US that is now in a quandary over the regional diplomatic split: Russia has put itself in the middle by trying to cultivate its blossoming relationship with Iran and its proxies on the one hand, and being seen as a credible regional power broker and mediator on the other hand, and many Arab states victimized by Iran-backed attacks will not take kindly to its support of these proxies and Iran.
While there is concern about the alleged violation of Iraq’s and Syria’s sovereignty with the airstrikes, in reality the US is doing Iraq a failure by targeting the Iran-backed proxies and limiting the role of the PMUs run amok. Baghdad has struggled with integrating and controlling these militias and with growing and unwelcome Iran influence, and these proxies have come to terrorize even the Shia portions of Iraqi populations, projecting undue power, creating a state-within-a-state and essentially taking over parts of the country.
While Iraq expressed indignation over the alleged lack of coordination with the US over the airstrike, the doublespeak coming from Baghdad over potential US withdrawal speaks to the political complication of having Iran run Iraq as its own sphere of influence. Iraqi nationalists want all foreign influence - both US and Iran - out of the country, but fear their next door neighbor more, and so only scold Washington. But the full withdrawal is unlikely and would not be beneficial because the US has been instrumental in helping counter the rising ISIS influence, and Iran has not been particularly helpful in that regard. In fact, Iran has been siphoning off billions in oil out of Iraq for its own agenda, and has had many long standing financial disputes with Baghdad over power and electricity, one of which was only recently settled.
Much as Iran is trying to blame the regional escalation over US support for Israel against Hamas in Gaza, this rhetoric is really aimed at pushing US out of the region and giving Iran and its proxies free reign to project power, encircle Israel, infiltrate the Palestinians, and move them out of the Arab sphere of influence altogether, aside from further advancing proxy-led schemes across the region. Iran cares nothing for Palestinians, has provided them no humanitarian relief, and in fact has happily sacrificed them as pawns in its wars.
Biden should not only be hitting Iran proxies in Arab lands (though the proxies are themselves dangerous players and should be taken down), but attacking strategically valued targets in Iran directly, removing the head of the snake (Iran), and also going after Iranian officials and officers abroad. The liquidation of Qassem Soleimani had sent a powerful signal to Iran and forced it to back off for a while until Biden came to power and used policies to restore Iran’s financial capabilities and proxy-led hold on the region that was being degraded by the maximum pressure policies and strong military response from the US up until that point. The US made a mistake by allowing Iran to withdraw its assets from the region, when it should be holding Iran accountable for the escalation and using deterrence to roll back its direct role.
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV to discuss US energy policy. Some of the points I made:
I explained the reasons behind the Biden’s administration’s pause on gas terminals and LNG export licenses in the election year
I addressed the claims that US energy dominance contributes to European dependency and states that US is actually providing Europe with more diverse options
I talked about US reorienting to China and Southeast Asia markets due to the gas glut in Europe
I mentioned the policy failures behind Europe’s long term foreign gas dependence predicament and efforts to wean off Russian gas; I also talked about current changes to the nuclear energy policy landscape and how that impacts European energy security.
I talked about the impact of the Houthi attacks on oil transports and why the prices on oil have not gone up, although shipping prices and insurance has been affected, and how that impacts Europe and other countries.
I talked about why the US actually supports Azerbaijan as a major energy exporter to Europe and why the harsh rhetoric against Baku comes from the efforts of the Armenian lobbyists and not from energy-related rivalry.
The Washington Outsider Report on the Coalition Radio
-Ep. 128
Don’t miss the latest episode of The Washington Outsider Report on the Coalition Radio with THE GEOSTRATA’s Nisarg Jani! This timely discussion focuses on BRICS technology projects and cooperation. Hear important insights into:
Why BRICS economic cooperation should not be conflated with defense and security
Why India does not see its role in BRICS as a conflict with its cooperation with Western countries
BRICS role regarding natural resources
What we can we expect from this alliance in terms of semiconductor development
The importance of quantum telecommunications research and why Russia, China, and others are making a strong push for it
Why tech exchanges could define BRICS success for the near future