Articles
International Media
Quoted at length among other regional specialists, including Jason Brodsky, in a detailed analysis by Khabar Agency regarding US/UK failure to stop additional mobilization and attacks by Houthis and to target significant Iranian and Houthi sites or leadership as a form of deterrence. I explained how Iran is exploiting this situation to exacerbate policy divisions between US/UK on the one hand, and EU on the other, to coalesce and coordinate with China, at least in a limited way, to empower the Houthis, and to present the Houthis not only as legitimate but as sufficiently strong to draw the US into a prolonged asymmetrical confrontation. I explain that the US, by fighting smarter, can avoid both significant expenses and casualties, and send a strong deterrence message to Tehran.
US Media
Quoted among a bevy of data analytics and data privacy practitioners in George Lawton’s in-depth article in diginomica concerning Biden’s new Executive Order outlining protections for US data as part of a national security framework to prevent elections meddling by foreign adversarial states, such as Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela. Whereas I focus my comments on the prospects of industrial espionage and negligence in the corporate world, others provide valuable insights and a spirited debate on various angles of the EO and the general discussion around data privacy and sovereignty, including the comparison to the UK/EU approach. Make sure to read to the end for a very interesting conclusion/food for thought!
“Today, a bill that would require TikTok’s Chinese parent company ByteDance to divest from the popular video-sharing app within six months or face a wholesale ban in the US has been unanimously approved by the U.S. House of Representatives House Committee on Energy and Commerce. The development, media experts say, should have advertisers and creators scrutinizing their strategies”. I am quoted among a host of social media and marketing consultants in Kendra Barnett’s article in The Drum, where I discuss the possibility of striking a balance between economic interests and national security concerns in the sale of TikTok to a US buyer, and the likely impact on various stakeholders. I advise the advertisers to not wait for an eventual legislative response and to plan for an exit ahead of reputational damage, or at least diversify their portfolios.
“Is distrust slowing innovation? Why personal digital sovereignty could help. This diginomica deep dive looks into whether efforts to accelerate trust could have a more substantial impact on the economy and the adoption of AI than the current $231 billion data broker industry privacy model. Also, it looks into the potential for extending data sovereignty from the current focus on countries to personal data sovereignty, how it might work and key challenges.” I was honored to participate in a fascinating and multifaceted discussion about groundbreaking efforts, challenges, and opportunities in advancing greater personal data sovereignty/management by George Lawton in diginomica. This is the third part of the three-part series related to Biden’s EO which outlines a national security framework for limiting outsourcing of data related to Americans and US to hostile states. Here, I discuss the challenges of revamping bigtech/social media companies to compensate for potential lost advertising revenue.
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus Media and Issues
I joined a discussion in Azerbaijan’s Caliber publication to address Trump’s and Biden’s chances in the Elections 2024 in November, and whether Trump or Biden is seen as best for US interests. I explained that it’s too early to tell; that there are various concerns with each candidate and that both are hugely unpopular, with much depending on developments closer to the elections, but that overall the combination of incumbency, likely low turnout, and the use of mail-in ballots favors Biden.
TV Video Appearances and Podcasts
“The US Supreme Court has struck down efforts by individual states to disqualify Donald Trump from running for president using an anti-insurrection constitutional clause. Colorado had barred Mr Trump from its Republican primary, arguing he incited the 2021 Capitol riot.” I joined WION (World Is One News) to discuss the impact of the SCOTUS decision on Donald Trump’s campaign, the elections, and future candidates, and discussed the states rights’ vs federal authorities as part of the decision and why Trump will try, but fail, to interpret the decision in his favor as absolving him of all related insurrection claim accusations. I also noted that at the end of the day Trump was not charged or convicted of insurrection, and until he is, the merits of these claims are not likely to impact elections.
I joined القاهرة الإخبارية AlQahera NewsTv to discuss the prospects of the candidates for Super Tuesday. I came close in predicting that Nikki Haley would be the biggest loser (she did end up snatching Vermont), and that the overwhelming majority of the delegates would go to Trump. We also discussed longer term predictions for Election 2024, such as whether Trump’s legal cases would affect his path to the White House. I explained that the civil cases are not likely to play as much of a role, but the criminal cases could be a real liability with the classified documents case being the most damning and with that trial set to start in the summer. I also discussed how economic inflation and border security are the two top concerns for the voters, and went into details discussing the changes that brought border security and immigration to the forefront of discussion. This issue should favor the Republicans, but because Trump is using it in a blatantly self-serving way and preventing a crisis from being resolved by having the House GOP not vote on the bipartisan Senate bill that could bring some measure of immediate relief, this could backfire on the Republicans and give the opportunity to the Biden administration to salvage its poor record through an executive order. I talked about how the “uncommitted” voters in Michigan are not likely to abandon Biden in the general election, but the border security concern is putting pressure on Biden and sending a message, along with some of his other policies, that there are issues crossing the party lines that he needs to be concerned about. I also explained why many young people are not interested in either Trump and Biden (they are both old, out of touch, have terrible reputations, and are uninspiring), but that even if they stay home en masse that’s not likely to change the final outcome. I also mentioned that Trump is facing a disadvantage in the mail in ballot system, but that although the politicians often have a tendency to blame their losses on unfair methods by their opponents, Trump in 2020 chose not to take advantage of the mail-in ballot system nor to do anything about it, and even encouraged his voting base to stay home, and is repeating many of the same mistakes now. I also talked about how early voting, incumbency, and the mail-in ballots are favoring Biden, but on the other hand, young Republican voters tend to be more excited to participate in elections on behalf of Trump, who is also picking up support among African Americans and Hispanic voters. Still, women tend to favor Biden, and also Trump failed to expand his base despite some cross-party support and has not gained a significant following among independents. Overall, Biden has a bit of an edge over Trump, especially now that the Super Tuesday exit polls are indicating that many Haley voters are saying they will not be voting for Trump in the general election.
I joined María Maloof’s show “The Capital Institute” to discuss Egypt’s interests and security concerns in siding with Sudan’s recognized government led by the SAF leader General AlBurhan over the RSF/ex-Janjaweed militia led by General Dagalo (Hemedti), the reasons for the return of elements of the Muslim Brotherhood to governance after being imprisoned in the aftermath of the Omar Al Bashir downfall, and the causes behind Iran’s efforts to normalize and engage with the Sudan government, which include both tactical and strategic opportunities, such as 1.) growth of overall influence in Africa, in the East, after establishing a militia-based presence in the West, 2.) financial benefits of selling drones as well as the image of a power broker, and 3.) potential access to the waterways, needed for Iran’s RedSea strategy. THe relationship has its limitations given that Sudan denied Iran the opportunity to build a naval base due to 1.) pressure from the international community, and 2.) its own concerns over sovereignty and national security challenges resulting from Iran’s presence. I also discuss how Iran has successfully pursued normalization with the GCC and is also directly wooing Egypt but has a hurdle of mistrust to overcome over the Islamic Republic’s previous and ongoing support for the Muslim BRotherhood, including the MB President Morsi. I talked about how there are "no good guys" in Sudan, and Egypt’s support for AlBurhan is entirely pragmatic, interest based, focused on security, stability, and the easy of working with the military, rather than ideological in nature.
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV to discuss the latest developments in US Election 2024. We talked about the likelihood of success for each of the candidate, why Haley and others failed to gain traction on the Republican sides, discussed why the economy and border security are driving the conversation, how social issues could benefit the Democrats, and how the House GOP intransigence on the bipartisan Senate border security bill could backfire if Biden goes through with implementing an executive border. We also discuss shifts in the party demographics, and what can be expected in the next few months in terms of advantages and disadvantages for each side.
“The US Braces for the political rematch of the decade! On November 5th, Americans will cast their votes in a historic battle between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Join News9 Plus for an in-depth analysis of this unprecedented election rematch, marking the first in almost 70 years. In this episode, delve into the contrasting narratives presented by Trump and Biden. Trump’s Super Tuesday triumph and his portrayal of a nation in crisis, versus Biden’s warnings of an existential dilemma if Trump returns. The stakes are high, with Biden facing rock-bottom approval ratings and doubts about his fitness for a second term. Explore the political landscape as we discuss Trump’s potential historic win, aiming to become the first U.S. President in 127 years to secure non-consecutive terms. With Irina Tsukerman and Amb. Yogesh Gupta joining News9 Plus Editor Sandeep Unnithan and colleague Neha Khanna.” I joined News9Live panel to discuss Trump’s and Biden’s advantages and advantages, commenting on why border security matters far more than the progressive Michiganders who voted non-committed to send a message to Biden about the war in Gaza, and how the overall support for Biden actually rose in Michigan since the last election. I also talked about how House GOP intransigence on the bipartisan Senate border security bill could backfire if Biden moves forward with an executive order pushing these changes, and eliminates their advantage, and how the early voting and mail in ballot system benefits Biden.
I appeared on Azerbaijan’s “Modern Talking” Program with Rasim Babayev to discuss assorted international issues, including the course of the US elections, the renewed path to peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the role of Russia, EU, US, and other players, whether France and Iran intend to divide up Armenia as their new sphere of influence as Russia is being forced out of Armenia by Pashinyan, and whether Georgia’s and Armenia’s interest in joining the EU could divide South Caucasus. We also touched on other issues such as France-Germany rivalry and its impact on the war with Ukraine and NATO, the calamities in the Red Sea, and the future of the US foreign policy and what may change depending on whether Trump or Biden gets a second term, on issues such as Ukraine, Israel-Hamas war, and China.
The Washington Outsider Report on the Coalition Radio
-Ep. 132
Don’t miss out on this explosive episode of The Washington Outsider Report on the Coalition Radio with Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)’s Kseniya “Kassie” Kirillova. We delve beyond the curtain of Russia’s exportation of ideologies around the World, to see how the Kremlin manages to reach both the radical left and the radical right, and to push contradictory or conflicting narratives to diverse diaspora groups and other divergent audiences. We talk about how distrust in the official institutions breeds support for “radical dissidents”, and pushes Western voters to support even less trustworthy authoritarian demagogues such as hashtagPutin. Finally, we explore in depth the case study of the corrupt, disgraced, convicted form hashtagFBI counterintelligence official Charles McGonigal, as a perfect example of the sort of influence that breeds contempt for the US security agencies and opens doors to foreign spies and agents of influence. Kseniya Kirillova’s personal testimony is a shocking denunciation of the culture of groupthink, and willingness to cover up for convicted criminals, as well as a raw glimpse inside the tensions over the pursuit of espionage suspects in the polarized climate of the US intelligence community, sometimes with bizarre results for the stand-off with their Russian counterparts.