Articles
International Media
My new piece for The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune (thanks Robert Joel Silverman!) describes the failed history of Palestinian unity governments and why the latest salvo by five factions who met in Beirut is not likely to succeed - at least not on Mahmoud Abbas's terms.
Quoted extensively in UK-based Gas Strategies on the issue of the Biden administration’s potential additional regulation of future LNG projects and possible decarbonization related restrictions, and whether and to what extent they could affect ongoing activities and future commitments. I talk about the general trend towards ESG and other increased reporting requirements and the need to balance the climate change-related concerns with economic goals and geopolitics interests and long-term commitments.
Quoted in Egypt’s جريدة الدستور - ElDostor News, a prominent publication, regarding my recent comments on القاهرة الإخبارية AlQahera News regarding the real reasons for US airstrikes on Houthis. Although the US claims it is to protect freedom of navigation and to deter Houthis, the real message (however poorly executed) is to Iran.
US Media
Quoted extensively in an in-depth article by Autumn Spredemann de Calani in The Epoch Times among various experts including Robert Evan Ellis about the escalation of violence and the war on street gangs and cartels in Ecuador, the political and socioeconomic factors behind the recent explosion of gang violence, the geopolitical impact of Ecuador's destabilization and the role and interests of various anti-US regimes such as Cuba, Venezuela, Russia, China, and Iran, who may be involved and for sure are capitalizing on the social breakdown.
TV Video Appearances, Panels, and Podcasts
“In a decisive victory, Former President Donald Trump emerges triumphant in the Iowa caucus, marking a significant step in his quest for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. This video breaks down the results, highlighting Trump's strong lead and the unexpected performance of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who clinched second place, surpassing former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. This unexpected turn of events sets the stage for an intriguing battle leading up to the New Hampshire primary next week. Can DeSantis or Haley pull off an upset and reshape the narrative of the Republican nomination race? Will Trump's dominance continue, or is there a chance for a shift in momentum?” I joined a panel of experts on News9Live “Global Lens” to discuss the outcome of the Iowa Caucus: the need to engage independents for the general elections, whether Democrats could disrupt the Republican Biden-centric strategy by nominating a younger figure with no unpopular foreign policy record like Gov. Gavin Newsom at the 11th hour, and what to expect of the primary race going forward.
“So far, the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas militants has not led to the nightmare scenario -- a wider conflict in West Asia. But after recent events tensions in West Asia are near boiling point. Even as Arab nations and the west look desperately to water down heating temperatures.” I joined WION to discuss the comments by the Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan regarding the possibility of “friendship” between KSA and Israel if the Palestinian issue is “solved” and his call for an immediate ceasefire. I explained how Saudi position on normalization with Israel has not changed since the proposal of the Arab Peace Initiative in the early 2000s, that the push for diplomacy and expansion of the Abraham Accords came at Biden's initiative and the Saudis went along in hopes of possible concessions but never changing the position. I described the failure to get to any direct talks with Israel, and explained that Israel was never the obstacle to a Palestinian state, but rather the recalcitrant Palestinian leadership. I also pushed back against the calls for immediate ceasefire and the Saudi FM's accusations of Israel's deliberate targeting of civilians, explaining that Israel has taken utmost care to minimize civilian deaths even at risk to its own troops and explained how Hamas is holding the Gaza population hostage.
I took part in a great discussion on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV concerning the impact of the presidential races in the US, how the election cycle is impacting foreign policy, and what we can expect from the Republican and Democratic primaries. I discussed how and why Trump took a commanding lead in Iowa, and whether the talks of Gavin Newsom possibly stepping in for Biden have any merit; I also discussed how weak US foreign policy enabled Houthi attacks on international commercial ships and US warships in the Red Sea, the impact on Suez Canal and shipping prices, as well as the economies of the Far East countries dependent on imports of oil and gas. I also talked about Iran's role and interests and the proxy war against US and Israel in Iraq and Syria, including the latest strikes targeting a Kurdish billionaire in Erbil and the repeated attacks on US forces by Iran-backed militias. I talked about how all of that plays into Israel's war with Gaza and how Middle East politics are impacted by the policies of election-linked uncertainty in the US.
“We are back with The KAJ Masterclass LIVE and Khudania Ajay after a winter break to discuss the big topic of the moment - freedom of navigation and Iran and Houthi aggression in the Red Sea, including its impact on the Indo-Pacific interests. We discuss US policy, whether the Israel-Hamas war is the real casus belli here, why US policy has been weak so far, the value and prospects for deterrence and what needs to happen to get the message across, and India's future in foreign policy independence and navigating between BRICS and US-led blocs... will it be forced to choose sides? Will it simply outgrow some of its current allies and partners? In this episode of KAJ Masterclass LIVE, join host Khudania Ajay as he engages in a riveting conversation with Irina Tsukerman, a distinguished national security and human rights lawyer, and geopolitical analyst. Together, they discuss the US-UK strike's impact on Yemen, how the recent escalation has affected India, etc.”
My interview on Azerbaijan’s SVS TV to discuss the French Senate's renewed push for sanctions against Baku in the European Parliament, the EU press secretary's response to an Armenian journalist regarding Azerbaijan's alleged prospects for aggression against Armenia, and why all these propaganda efforts and campaigns are not only bound to, but are designed to fail and should be ignored. My comments start at 10:06.
I joined AlQaheraNewsTv- القاهرة الإخبارية to discuss Iran and Pakistan airstrikes against Baluchis, whether US policy on Israel's role in Gaza is shifting, and the expansion of the conflict in the Red Sea. The points I made:
Media has completely misread Iran-Pakistan situation. These are two old allies routinely cooperating against Baluchi minority and coordinating airstrikes on their military basis. Following ISISK attack in Tehran, Iran was pressured to show strength, and admitted almost as much in its statement concerning its various strikes in the region, and so attacked the type of target it would normally have done with Pakistan's assistance. Both countries ultimately benefited from attacks on each other's Baluchis; the diplomatic escalation was mostly to show and for the benefit of their internal audiences; there will no serious rift and already relations have gone back to normal. It is possible the entire incident was coordinated.
Iran's attack on Iraq are of a different caliber; relations with Baghdad have been uneven, with tensions over the role of PMUs, but also occasional cooperation against the Kurds. Iran did not strike anywhere ISIS would have been located and failed to show any evidence of Mossad presence; instead it killed a well known energy businessman and caused Iraq to file a complaint with the UN, unlike Pakistan *wink wink nudge nudge*.
US remains consistent in supporting the military destruction of Hamas, particularly after Hamas demonstrated its global threats comparing itself to ISIS and threatening attacks around the world. Its radicalized ideology is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran-backed networks and mobs spreading antisemitism and extremism in the West and blocking key infrastructure. US has differed with Israel on tactics, but it's unclear whether Israel has recently withdrawn troops from Gaza in response to that or as a result of the expected escalation with Hizbullah in the North. Regardless, this strategy appears unsuccessful as rumors of Hamas remnants regrouping in the North of Gaza abound and rockets have once again barraged Israel. US, if it sees the failure of its position, will likely pull away from any language that threatens the ultimate objective. Moreover, leaving secondary Hamas operatives in command undermines the overall approach as it allows them to retain control over the population and they are the ones actually doing all of the heavy lifting in the streets in terms of fighting.
The US is ultimately unlikely to change its support for anti-Hamas operations over statements by EU politicians, given that the EU itself nearly suffered attacks by Hamas. Moreover, EU is in no position to engage on security strategy given that it only recently placed Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Al Aqsa Flood operation, on the terrorist list, despite decades of terrorist activity. It is amazing that Europe retains any flexibility towards Hamas presence given the financial and security conflicts of interests.
Finally, the big mistake by Israel and the US was to allow Muslim Brotherhood ideology and organizations and Iran-backed proxies to retain any hold locally. They should have been working closer with Arab states to eliminate these common threats before they developed the reach and power they now have, which would have saved many lives.
The Iranian guest made the expected kind of commentary, and especially claimed that it’s in Egypt’s economic interest to normalize with Iran but that Israel and the US stand in the way for their own reasons.
The Washington Outsider Report on the Coalition Radio
- Ep. 125
Don’t miss out on this extremely thought provoking discussion on the role of AI in military and information warfare contexts, particularly in Russia and Ukraine, with Dr. Gregory O’Connor on The Washington Outsider Report on The Coalition Radio. Learn about:
the history of AI
Why we are in no danger of being eliminated by our robot overlords (at least for now)
How is that in some cases, algorithms actually become WORSE as a result of training
ethics of AI use in the battlefield
what we can surmise about China’s investments into AI
the opportunities and limitations for the US public-private sector partnerships on AI development
assorted uses in geopolitics
what generative AI can and cannot do for Information Warfare
How Ukraine has become a testing ground for technology innovation - and why it's not getting the best use of the possibilities of AI-generated content in psyops
How US and its allies are missing out on various opportunities in the use of AI in information warfare - and why we are ignoring basic rules of war in terms of developing defensive capabilities.
... and much more.